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Bet the House: On Retirement

There's an old story about a master who hands each of his servants a fortune before a long trip. Two of them put the money to work. One digs a hole and buries his.

A buried treasure becomes a suburban house
You're the servant. The talent is a paid-off house.

The number nobody publishes

Everybody mashes two stats together: record numbers of paid-off homes, and Americans with nothing saved for retirement. Nobody proves they're the same families. So we pulled the Fed's raw survey data and ran the cut ourselves. For the median household 62 and up that owns its home free and clear:

$280,000of house
$28,000in retirement accounts
44.8%hold zero. nothing.
$117/mowhat that median account pays at 5%

Ten times more house than retirement. Same families, same federal survey. And a paid-off house is kind of like a retirement account that never sends you a check.

You know this family

A happy couple on the porch of their paid-off home
The Chongs: $500,000 home, paid off. About $95,000 a year of income. No retirement accounts.

They did everything their parents taught them. Killed the debt. Owned the roof. He's run his own martial arts studio for 25 years, and a small business doesn't hand you a 401(k) form. The house is the plan. Some of you are this family.

So we ran the bet

Same $500,000 paid-off house, same budget, four different moves, ten years. Here's where each family lands:

Do nothing$671,958
Cash out $400K, put it in the market$1,091,963
Invest $2,661 every month, no new debt$1,132,573
Cash out $400K, buy 14 rental homes$1,854,584

Two things worth staring at. Borrowing at 7% to buy stocks loses to just investing your budget with no debt at all. And the rental family got there contributing exactly $0 a month after closing day, because the tenants cover everything, including the loan on the house. Their pocket cash flow starts around $1,456 a month and grows to somewhere near $4,599 by year ten. Rents climb. The payments never move.

We even broke stuff

The hero blasts away bad luck with a hose of cash
Two roofs. Two AC systems. Two nightmare tenants. The plan barely noticed.

We stress-tested a decade of genuinely bad luck against the model. The family still ends at $1.76 million, and the $100,000 emergency line we set up on day one never got touched. Not once.

How the story ends

The master gives the buried talent to the servant who multiplied
The ending almost nobody remembers.

When the master comes back, he takes the buried fortune and hands it to the servant who multiplied his. That part's not me editorializing. It's in the text.

"Those who have will be given more. And whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken away."

If the family on that porch looks familiar, start with three numbers: what's the house worth, what do the accounts hold, and what does that turn into per month. Running them takes twenty minutes. Grab a time with me, and if it's the houses you want to talk about, my Realtor partner Carolyn Carino picked every one of those 14 doors: she does the property side.

The nerd print: retirement figures are our analysis of the Federal Reserve's 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances public data. "Retirement accounts" means IRA/401(k)-type balances and excludes pensions and Social Security, so plenty of families are better off than the raw number reads. The ten-year model assumes 7% market growth, 3% home appreciation and rent growth, a 5% sustainable draw, and real listed houses verified active on the day we built it. Adam Klugh NMLS #1596587 · Success Mortgage Partners, Inc. NMLS #130562. This is an illustration with stated assumptions, not individual financial advice.

Adam
Adam, the Mortgage Nerd
Direct Mortgage Lender · Sarasota, FL

Biology grad, former firefighter, and finance nerd who structures loans to save you money. NMLS #130562.

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